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Bet Resources

Inside The Mind Of A Bookmaker – Profits and Probabilities

 

Have you ever paused to imagine what could be going through the mind of bookmakers when they set odds? What they could be thinking about? and more importantly, how do they ensure they make a profit? hmm!

 

 

 

 

I can’t boast of having answers to all that but i can confidently tell you how the dude makes his money out of the large crowd of uneducated bettors.

 

 

 

Now, come closer….i want to let you in on a little secret.

 

 

 

 

In gambling, betting odds do not work the way you had earlier thought they do because they do not represent the true chances as implied by the bookie that an event will occur or not occur – betting odds are simply the prices of bets that tells you the amount the bookie is willing to pay you if your bet was successful.

 

And this is where things get interesting.

 

 

 

For a minute, let’s get into a mindset. The mindset of one who sets the betting odds [bookmakers].

 

 

Here we go………

 

 

inside-the-head3

 

 

Using a coin toss for example:

 

You must have seen and held the One Naira coin i guess. Now, there are two sides of that coin – one side has the image of my friend ‘Herbert Macauley’ whilst the other has an image of the ‘coat of arms’. Since there is no physical difference between both sides such that no side appears heavier or made of finer quality than the other.

 

 

 

Assuming we throw the coin up –  on what side will it land on? GUESS!

 

 

 

I’ll wait………………………..

 

 

 

Herbert’s image or the coat of arms? Your guess is as good as mine.

 

 

inside-the-head-1

 

 

But then, there are only two possible outcomes that can happen – either it lands on one side or it lands on the other meaning each is likely as possible with a true probability of 50% for each which reflects betting odds of 2.00 (100/50 = 2.00).

 

 

Hence, statistically it is assumed that if that One Naira Coin is tossed two times, one will land on Herbert’s image and the other lands on Coat of arms. Agreed.

 

 

If i turn bookmaker and offer you 2.00 on your selection, i am saying that i believe your selection has a 50% chance of happening (probability = 1/odds x 100, hence the 50%) which it does and if i go ahead to accept your bets i will not make any profit since in two trials you will win one and lose one. Statistically speaking! and the once you win offsets your losses.

 

 

How?

 

 

Assuming you stake N100 each on both attempts, that’s a total of N200 and by winning one of those trials at 2.00, you make N100 x 2 = N200 (returning back your total stake).

 

 

 

Therefore, neither you nor i the bookmaker benefited or lost anything in this transaction because the odds i gave you corresponded to the real 50% probability of either event happening.

 

 

 

But sadly enough 🙁 this is only a classic example, and doesn’t tell the full story of how betting odds work in the world of sports betting.

 

 

Ask yourself: Would you want to do business without making some profit? So why would the bookie set up shop, employ odd compilers and other staffs only for him to run a profit-less business by selling his products at cost price. Food for thought!

 

 

He obviously needs an in-built edge somehow so as to stay in business. As a smart guy, he understands that probability is simply the likelihood/chance that something will occur. And therein lies the problem for him, dude doesn’t want to rely on chance to make a profit – he wants his income to be under control and the one way to guarantee that is to put himself in a position of advantage in any betting transaction.

 

So what exactly does the bookmaker do?

 

 

 

Rather than 2.00 he’d offer you something less like 1.70 to 1.95 it could even get as low as 1.45 (depending!). So now, if you back same selection, you won’t break even anymore, you’ll actually lose money – the chances of either side of the coin coming up is still same, but the price you pay  is now too expensive.

 

 

 

 

True you might be lucky enough to make out a few short term wins – but all that would be wiped out in the long-haul.

 

 

 

Here is what i mean

 

Say the bookmaker offers you 1.80 for each outcome. With same total stake of N200, betting N100 on Herbert’s image and the the other N100 on coat of arms – if any side wins you make N180 – but in the long-run you won’t break even because your selection will not always pay since this is a game of chance. At the end of two attempts in this example: where you win one and lose one, you realize that you have lost N20.

 

 

 

Bottom-line: The earlier 50% probability corresponding to odd of 2.00 is known as the “true probability” since it represents the actual chances of the event happening whereas the final odds the bookmaker pushes out to the public is the ‘implied probability” and does not reflect the real chances of the event happening – its just the payout odds.

 

To be a more successful bettor, you simply need to know the relationship between the true odds of an event and the false odds – once you understand that you’ve unlocked the ultimate secret to successful and far more profitable betting because you now have the edge. It’s all about the edge. If the bookie has it – you’re in a for a long rough ride ; but if you have the edge – who says betting can’t be profitable?

 

 

 

But since all you have access to is the posted odds which are implied probabilities at best, you can’t easily tell the relationship between what the odds should have been from the odds the bookmaker gives you. To then know the true odds of each event, there is no other way than compiling your own odds – which is easy and you can be sure that every successful bettor is doing that already.

 

 

 

Hence, its a must that putting yourself in a position to start winning would require you learning to compile your own betting odds and comparing those odds with what the bookmaker is offering. Revolutionary New Betting Course, just published, teaches you exactly what you need to know to start winning.

 

165 Comments

  • Hi Rotimi, my only question here is how do I compile my own odds to know the true odds of each event instead of the implied probability of the bookmakers?

    • Hello Adeyemi

      i’m very pleased of your interest to acquire one of the must have skills
      as a bettor.

      However, Compiling betting odds is a topic too broad to discuss in a
      comment tool box but i will try giving you a brief and basic introduction.

      When you compile betting odds, you simply take parameters like goals or number of win-draw-win
      or number of shots and turn them into percentages for most betting markets bookmakers offer.

      For instance, say Liverpool have won 3 games, lost 2 and drew 1 out of 6 games at home,
      their probability of winning at home should now be 3/6 = 50%…converting to odds = 100/50 =2.00

      Supposing they face an away opposition Burnley that have won 1 game, lost 4, and drew 1 out of six games at away.

      At this point, Liverpool’s chances to win cannot be 50% anymore you have to weight in the factor of the opposition.

      How?

      By adding Burnley’s chance of losing at away to Liverpool’s chances of winning at home and dividing by 2.
      Burnley’s losing at away = 4/6 = 66.67%

      Next we add to Liverpool’s 50% chance of winning at home then divide by 2 = (50% + 66.67%/2 = 116.67%/2 = 58.33%)

      And there it is Liverpool’s price to beat burnley at home = 1.71 (100/58.33).

      Like i said, this is just a basic introduction of how it works. You may have to squeeze in
      other factors like head to head and some other weighting to produce a more accurate odds-line.

      So you know, 3 methods of Odds compiling was extensively explained very well in the Mega Betting Course.

      • So I guess the true odd for liverpool to win at home to burnley is 1.71 regardless of the implied odd of the bookmaker? One more thing, can this same formula be used for both teams with their wins, draws and loses?

        • Yes it can be used.

          You just have to repeat same steps all over to for the particular outcome of your choosing.

        • You are just so good at what you do Sir. All of this is really new to me. I can’t wait for the mega course to beat the bookies. I have lost about 75% of my bets since I started. But with you, I guess I’ll be saying ENOUGH!

      • So is there any specific country that the bookmakers has bought the games and applying Leah own tactics and I think I have one problem you might even have some game which one part of the team is having no goals or win in his last 5 or 6 meeting. So how will you compile such games and when if you get a wright odds but the winning percentage at where you are beting goes against the wright winning odds of your calculations and the probability of win at the Betting site goes against the one I think it must win. What should I do if I see that.

    • Hello Ojez,

      By creating your own odds yourself you can tell if a price is false or not.
      But the issue is it gets much harder to judge the fairness of the prices offered
      in a wager of sporting events like football.

      However, the main feature of odds compiling is that you are saying your odds is true and better while the
      bookmaker own is false. A very strong claim and you should be very confident of the profitability
      of your methods before you make such a bold claim.

    • You don’t necessarily need to manufacture a totally new odds-line when you lay bets at an exchange.

      The betting exchange will provide the odds then you can push it up/down a little depending on your personal strategy.
      Definitely, the economics of demand and supply will force you not to push too far since there are other sellers.
      Moreover, too and no one would surely want to buy from you if you’re selling too costly likewise you would not want
      to put yourself at risk by selling too cheap.

    • Good day Mr. Rotimi, I have worked out some true odds, I did it from the example you give. Now bookmakers don’t put the true odds. How do I use it now to bet?

      • compare them to the odds the bookmaker gave you, that is how you will find a valuable bet.
        I also covered most of it in the MEGA BETTING COURSE, you will need it…

    • From the simple illustration, we said supposing Burnley playing at away has lost 4 games, drew 1 game and won 1 game.

      hence, that’s a total of six matches they have played at away.

      To then get the probability of them losing at away you simply divide:
      [their total loss away by the total number of games played away = 4/6 =66.67%]

      That should be it…let me know if you have any further questions!

  • So If Am Correct By What You Have Explained So Far, In Picking Our Game, We Have To Determine The True Odd Of The Game And Its Value Percentage. So Do We Now Pick Our Games Based On The Outcome With The Highest Value ?

    • Not necessarily the outcome with the “highest value”.

      if by highest value you mean the outcome with the highest odd,
      then you’re having a mix up between “price and value”

      You pick your games based on which of the outcomes has a market price
      lower than what you calculated for it. The grand idea is simply buying cheap
      and paying little for a good product (bet).

      If you still don’t get the explanations right olayinka, do well to hit me up again.

    • Hello Isaiah, it’s pretty simple.
      here is the formula (odd = 100/percentage chance).
      Now supposing we have an outcome with 50% chance. the corresponding odd is 100/50 = 2.00.
      hence 2.00 is the odd that reflects a 50% chance.
      Ps: There is no conversion from chance to percentage because both imply same thing when it comes to sports betting.

    • Absolutely Francis. that can be done and there are so many methods for getting an odds-line for over/under or both team to score market. In compiling, you focus on the number of goals scored in previous matches and not the number of winnings.
      To the how part? I can’t possibly go through it here because I fear I may not sufficient time/space to pass across the message clearly. But you can be rest assured that the mega betting course contains practical and simple step by step guide you can use. From the poisson method to goal supremacy method it covers all.

  • please mr rotimi nyc one but wat about over/under bet for people like us who don’t like winnin how do you calculate that?. Thanks

  • Thank you Rotimi for today’s course. The formula u explained earlier for odds compilation, how can one factor in other conditions such as teams form, scoring ability, team motivation, players status etc. I’m sure all this also contribute in the final outcome of the game.

    • Yes you’re right. That’s why the method taught to you is basic.
      Now, your odd compiling method is the secret sauce to your profitability/loss.
      the more data/parameters you use, the more accurate your final odds-line becomes.
      Be advised that – the mega betting course contains a detailed guide on how to add parameters into your odd-compiling.

      But then, some factors like motivation, new coach, injury and on and on cannot be denoted
      with any mathematical value so we leave it out of the compiling process. but factors like head2head, scoring ability, team form (Win,draw,lose) is used and you’ll get a complete guide on how to use them from the mega betting course that would be made available to you via email.

  • How come nobody is talking about Draw. ? 1 X 2. Was thinking the outcome in a football match is 3 home win, Draw or away win.

    • lol.daniel.. yeah, you’re right. the coin example is used as an illustration to explain what real football betting outcomes works like. you’ll get an email from me soon detailing how to use this knowledge in football betting normal 1×2.

  • ODD is not just restricted to only two probabilities from the tossed coin analogy. Other factors still affect price of bets ( odds). Leaving either home or away to win alone or even full time draw too. How can a bettor take advantage of other options that reflect price of bet of a particular game

    • yeah yeah yeah jerry! but then this is just an illustration that uses coins to explain how normal betting outcomes works like. look out for lesson 5 in the email course series, I will explain all that in great depth.

  • what if I want to get the mega course bet book later,will I still able to get it bcos am not financially bouyant now and I m want to get it.

  • Thank u Rotimi for d good work u r doing I really appreciate it. Now my question is, for someone like me who doesn’t know anything about football and bet hw do I analyze d outcome of an event and break even. And will dis mega course really help me understand hw dis whole thing work

    • O yeah…the mega betting course breaks it all into easy to understand bits. And from my experience you don’t need to know much about football before you become a good bettor..football on its own is entertainment, football betting is pure business and I teach you how to go about your football biz in the mega betting course.

  • Sir. I thank u for ur course, I have really learn a lot, may God bless u for me sir. Sir I have a question? Sir how will I know the true Odds of an event and the false Odds.

    Sir. How will I compile my own betting Odds and comparing those Odds with what the bookmaker is offering me

    • Yeah William..good to have you on board..keep alert for Lesson 5 in the series and you’ll learn a simple method of odds compiling

  • Mr. Rotimi how do I establish the relationship between true odds and false odds of an event in order to unlock the secret of success. Is there a formular to it?

  • Hi Mr rotemi am really happy I subscriber, I have read through and it amazing how you analysis with the coin logic. I think I will try it out and how do i get the mega betting book?

    • thanks for the kind words bro…….call us on 09056101222 to learn more about the mega betting course

  • Hello Mr Rotimi,
    Please,from the coin method used,you did not talk about the “draw”aspect.
    How can we overcome the draw aspect?

    • The Dra aspect is for 3-way games, the coin analysis is used as an example to cover for 2-way games…

  • Good morning, my oga, you are indeed real. My question here is how do you identify the team that will not play Draw assume we are using 3.00 Odd on both home and away team according to your two sides coins analysis, most especially the teams do not have Drawn history.

    • The two sides coin analysis is based on 2-way odd game.
      I also covered the one for 3-way games in Lesson 5 of the free mini course

  • since professionals don’t count on luck, but calculatingly select winning odds. then what is the secret to this formula?

  • Hello Rotimi can one predict corners to be played in a match.likely me i have done that b4 bt in a one match Ac Milan played not even a single corner was played

  • I’m really enjoying this lesson like Kilode 😂, Infact I can’t wait to get through this free course so I can just Get The Mega course, thanks so much My Oga. You are really doing a great job here Sir. 👆

  • What are the informations needed in order to compile odds?
    How do i identify real odds from false odds?

    • Hello Leonard
      The secret to doing this have been fully shown in my free mini course, lesson 5.
      There i explained how you can calculate the real odd of a game so that you don’t
      get deceived by boomarkers.
      Subscribe to see more…

  • Thank you sir. I really love your course. but Really want to know the odds that is home win. Even if it was set by the bookies.

  • Hi mr rotimi, pls i wanna ask, after successfully compiling ur betting odds, which selection do u make on an event….a successful selection????

    • That totally depends on the probable factor, i covered those in the MEGA betting course…

  • Mr Rotimi thanks for ur good work, my concern is when u calculate the true odd from the false odd he do u use it to make a bet accurately without gambling or losing. Then he do we get the mega betting guide.?

    • You need to consider the probable factor, i covered most of it in the MEGA BETTING COURSE.
      You can contact my customer service 09056101222

  • Mr Rotimi thanks for ur good work, my concern is when u calculate the true odd from the false odd hw do u use it to make a bet accurately without gambling or losing. Then hw do we get the mega betting guide.?

    • You will need to consider the probable factor, which i covered in the MEGA BETTING COURSE,
      contact my customer service 09056101222

  • Thank Mr. Rotimi for good work,i have tried using your illustration to compile my own odds,but at some point I am hitting the rock,please what does it take to have the genuine odd compiler software installed in my computer system.

    • You will need to get the MEGA BETTING COURSE John.
      contact my customer service 09056101222

  • Don’t know how to choose in between or now the wining some times you see high odds like 2.99 to win 1.33 and they will end up wining sir hiw can one justify this

  • The glubs with higher odds wining the once with little odds of which one will not assume it will sir how can u know the real odds to. Choose sir

    • you will need to understand the difference between true and false odds,
      and also value betting…
      i have an article on that too in the blog.

  • Tanks Mr rotimi for todays lecture on the calculatn of true odds.my question,from the example u gave everton Vs Chelsea
    The actual odds calculated 2.00.12.2.40
    The selling odds
    6.42.3.99.1.57
    Now the first odd is actually smaller which is seems Gud, but the dress odds isn’t smaller, 12.0>3.99 I mean, please explain better
    Second question
    I pick a game Whc is to be played tomorrow
    Stoke Vs crystal pal
    Selling odds 2.66.3.30.2.74
    After my own calculations with ur explanations d actual odds are 2.58.3.29.2.12
    Comparing d odds nw and Wat I understand with ur teachings.the Gus bet AR away win or draw am not sure if am correct place she’d more light. Tanks

    • there was a typo error in that Everton vs Chelsea game, and for the crystal palace game, you already have your answer,
      crystal palace won the game, you should have made some good profit by now…

  • Good day, please I need explanation on how to fund and manage a foreign bet account and again, how can I take advantage of sign up bonuses because some bookmakers like Bet9ja.com attach condition to it, thank you

  • Thanks for this lectures, so If I get what your saying,is that if a game is giving let’s say 2.74 and I calculated the actual odd to be 2.12 i should be on it Because it is underpriced by the bookmakers.pls how can we calculate the actual odd Game?.

    • Yes it is under priced,you might need some supporting info too from the Mega Betting Course to stake smart.

  • Thank you sir for your good heart, I really appreciate your efforts. Keep up the good work.

  • Hi Rotimi, my only question here is how do I compile my own odds to know the true odds of each event instead of the implied probability of the bookmakers?

  • am also in PH CITY so how should i get the book. Look @ what i have worked out but i don’t no how to convert it to odds. For example; chelsea (away record) played= 18.. Won=10 draw= 3.. Lost= 5
    So i did 10/18×100 =55.56% so what is the next step?

  • Good evening mr rotimi plz can u put me through on how to compile my own personal odds still don’t understand how to go about it, that despite reading some of the samples u gave in the blog

    • Hello Kelechi,
      it would be better if you sign up for the free mini course.
      It is totally free, i gave a full process on how to do that.

  • hi sir, is it that the wining calculation must come from the team that has more winning history in the match,
    which site can be used to get the home and away winning of this teams,
    and can the calculation be made with the total winning of a team “both home and away winning” not minding if the team that has more winnin is in their home or are playing away? thanks

    • Hi Favour,
      The wining calculation don’t necessarily need to come from the team with most win, as it depends on
      draws as well loses, i clarify most of those in the MEGA BETTING COURSE.
      There are a lot of them, but most times i use futbol24, livescores, and even the betting sites like
      nairabet, bet365 and bet9ja can give such details.
      When calculating, the process itself have already considered teams that are away, and teams that are home,
      that’s why you collect home and away information, like number of home games won, number of away games won,
      etc. When you calculate these information, the final answer gives you a clear view of who will likely win
      the game.

  • Pls my problem is that how can I compile odd to know the true odd or caculate odd
    Like example BARCA vs REAL MADRID
    2.65 3.50. 2.70
    How can I compile each odd of HOME and AWAY.
    Thank

  • Thanks for the good work… Can’t wait to learn about the winning odds after my odds compilation. Would it be covered in the free mini course or the mega course? Pls reply

    • It will be covered in the free mini course, also it will be repeated too in the Mega Betting Course.

  • If I understand well, in calculating the true odds for team A to win and I find it higher than what the bookies are offering means it is safe to stake on what the bookies offer. If what the bookies offer is higher than my calculated value, it means it is a trap from the bookies… Am I correct?

    • Yes you are, if the bookies wants to lure you into a market, they will reduce a odd to a value that makes you think its safe to play a winning hand.

  • Please is it under must that is only their last six we can use to compile the odd?

    2.like those league that just start e.g premier league which match can we use to compile their odd?

    3. Please if the both team last match is all losses or draw are going to use the same method to compile the odd.

  • Hello Bros pls like when I calculate the odd between visse Kobe and Gamba Osaka in Japan J league 1 my calculation is 3.00 for home 3.00 for away and 3.00 for draw

    But 9jabet 2.20 -3.55 -2.96
    1. X. 2

    But in my thought like this I decided to go for ANYBODY WIN
    Am I correct with my sellection?

  • It is the best time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy.
    I’ve read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you some interesting things or advice.

    Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article.

    I wish to read even more things about it!

  • Good day Sir i just want to thank you for the good work that you are doing, reading your book was like talking to you face to face i had clear understanding on it, the only thing i want to ask you Sir is to post your number with a code for example my number is 0734455662 now when i add a code will be ±27734455662 that gives both those who are in my country and those who are not in my country my best regards Victor.

  • Please help me with the link to true odds and false odds. Interesting lessons I am learning from you. Thanks Soo much

  • Please sir, when are you going to let me know exactly how to trade bets and make profit in the long run. All that I’ve read from you makes me rare for it, is it only in the mega book? Does it require money to purchase?, If yes please do tell how much for the book so that I can start keeping money aside for the purchase of it.

    • The Mega Betting Course will help you with creating your own odds, creating a strategy to consistently make profit from and
      also teach you how to manage your funds. And yes its for sale.
      Details will be sent to your email.

  • Dear Rotimi! I’m from Nigeria, having gone through some of your articles I personally want to appreciate your curiosity and zeal to disclose all of these. However, I think I have to quit from betting until the completion of these your powerful packed training. But I also want to know how much we’ll get the total required work you compiled for a startment. Thanks alot

    • This is a wise decision on your end Uchenna.
      This will definitely take you to the next level am sure.
      As long as you are in the free training that is ongoing, you will be getting an update
      from me concerning the cost.

  • Hey Rotimi. The 5 days is over and I would like to get the betting course. Again I have something to disclose with you.

  • I really appreciate your efforts helping newbies like me,am following up
    My questions will come after i completed all the free days courses.
    Thank you so much

  • Thank you sir for these wonderful works.Although I am very new to this betting stuff, I am beginning to understand things gradually through the free training.
    Sir,can you put me through, is true odd or value bet based on probability that an event is likely to happen or on certainty it will surely happen

  • My friend thanks slot for your tireless efforts made.
    Now you talked about compiling your own odds and how can we do that

  • My friend thanks slot for your tireless efforts made.
    Now you talked about compiling your own odds and how can we do that. May you please elaborate that clearly

    • Compiling your own odds is one of the most important part of the betting process. This will allow you to define for yourself what a value bet is.
      And how you can do that involves you collecting past game records of the teams that are about to play, this past game records can include their last games against other teams.
      A few steps of calculation that are simple and basic will give you the final odds for both team. I did a full details of this in the free training.

  • Good afternoon
    Most of the questions are asked by my colleague but please drop for us your country code for the watsap number

  • Yes,you have compiled your own odd,how do you know that the odds you have compiled is safe and can win?

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