Why Betting On High Odds Is Best

When it comes to odds the vast majority of punters know little about how they come about and more importantly why buying at high odds is crucial to the long term profit of any betting portfolio.

I remember sending out a complimentary game to buyers of my e-book a few weeks ago. Everyone smiled to the bank because the game played out. But something happened. A client sent me his won ticket of 192,000 Naira while another that played same game sent in his too but with returns of 174,ooo Naira.

You see the difference in profits?

Same event, same odds, same outcome but different returns. I congratulated him but had to let him see reasons why even though he had won the game, chances are he might lose out in the long-run if he keeps patronizing bookmakers with shortened odds.

But i doubt if he understood the real impact of his odds selection. That’s why through this article I’ll talk about how extremely important picking the better odds in any sport betting event is, so you really get to understand how crucial the kind of prices you choose is to the success of any long-term betting campaign.

 

I’ll show you a little math that goes on behind the scene to frustrate your hopes of ever making any profit in the long-run when you play on unfavorable odds.

The thing is……..

Even if you place bets using a powerful system and a good staking plan, a small factor like the odds you choose can knock of  a large chunk of long term profit.

 

You get the point? maybe this might sink better if we do some illustrations . So let’s go over to the under/over betting market for our little analysis.

 

Let’s say the league season just started and three bettors Rufus, Emeka and Dayo decides to start the campaign by placing bets on the same match where the bookmaker offers odds of say 1.80/1.80 on the over/under 2.5 goals market.

•  Rufus is just a casual player who plays for fun and doesn’t bother much about odds. For him what counts is just to get a win. So he picks the 1.80 odd offered.

 

• Emeka is more of an experienced player with a few number of  years to show for it. He just looked for another bookmaker on the same market who offered a better odds of 1.90.

 

• Dayo being a professional punter takes his time to select through a number of bookmakers offer on same betting market and finally settles for a 1.95 odds.

All three of this guys decide to place same stake of N1000 on the over2.5 outcome. And gracious goodness a winning bet it becomes.

Rufus wins with a profit of N800

Emeka makes a profit of N900

Dayo makes a modest profit of N950

Everyone is happy. Everyone won and the difference in profit seems negligible right? Take it easy, don’t be in a hurry to answer. We might as well find out soon.

Here we go……

Let’s assume all three punters decided to bet on this same kind of selections but Rufus and Emeka continued betting at their own favorite bookmaker while Dayo looks for more favorable odds and gets the highest odds possible (let’s say same 1.95) from a range of bookmakers.

After just a few weeks into the season they managed a success rate of 52%, let’s see what their portfolios would look like playing only on this 50:50 markets with same level stake of a N1000 for each bet.

After 80 bets

Remember they all won 52% of all bets placed. Check out what happens next.

• Rufus betting on 1.80 odds has lost N5120

How? let’s work it out.

Now after 80 bets, 80 x 1000 = N80,000 worth of stake was placed within the period.

He won 52% of this bets = 52/100 x 80= 41.6 ( total number of won bets out of 80)

To get the total amount of won bet = 41.6 x 1.80 x 1000 =N74880

Subtracting this amount of won bet from the total worth of stake = N74880-N80000 = -N5120

If you work out same arithmetic for Emeka and Dayo here is what you get:

• Emeka betting on 1.90 odds has lost N960

 

• Dayo betting on 1.95 odds cash in  N1120 profit.

Still not aware of anything, Rufus and Emeka will keep doing same thing while their success rate remains constant at 52%.

After 400 bets

• Rufus has lost N25600

 

• Emeka has lost N4800

 

• Dayo has made N5600 profit

And after 1000 bets,

• Rufus has lost N64,000

 

• Emeka has lost N12000

 

• Dayo has made a total profit of N14000

Mind you, a 52 % success rate is quite impressive and yet our friends Rufus and Emeka had to take a beating off their money. What a sad story after all this efforts.

To better grasp this little illustration, you shouldn’t  forget the main point of the argument which is – All three bettors played same event, got same win/loss rate, played on different odds and got different long term results.

So after our little math party, do you still think the difference in odds is negligible? Obviously they aren’t and the numbers are there to suggest that using the highest betting odds you can find for the market for the whole of the entire season’s betting campaign is always best. I’d risk repeating myself again -high odds are always best.

More or less, you should start seeing odds as prices. If the price of a jacket at shop A is N1500 and you find same jacket, of same quality at Shop B selling for N1200 would you pay N300 more for it at the first shop? Definitely No. So it works with the bookmaker’s odds too.

The odds given to bet on have already been manipulated for the bookmaker’s profit. Which implies that even before the game, the odds are already against you, so buying at low odds only adds more profit to the bookies leaving you struggling at the edge.

My final piece of thought

Bookmakers survive and make a fortune from the money they encourage you to lose through nothing more than your own ignorance of how their system works.

So you see, this  guys are not charity organizations after all. They have a business plan.

If you wish to be successful with any form of sports betting you must understand the thinking of bookmakers. Understanding how the betting market works is a necessary requirement to becoming a successful bettor

The take home message is this – Seeing how brutal this guys are (bookmakers), isn’t it high time you re-evaluate your own tactics? Give it some thought!

Don’t keep falling mugu for these petty tricks bookmakers like Bet9ja and Nairabet use in wiping out all your money. Force yourself to learn everything you can about betting odds and how to make consistent profits from the game by learning the same techniques bookmakers use on uneducated bettors and using them to start earning a living from betting.

Click here to learn more of what our Free 5-Day Professional Betting Course offers.