Why You Should Avoid Placing Bets AT The Start Of The Season

Irrespective of how confident or excited you are, it’s strongly advisable to keep your head straight, stand by the sides and stay off any betting at the very start of a season. To an extent this may largely depend on the size of your betting portfolio or the nature of the betting system you use.

One obvious reason why you may want to avoid playing early bets is that the effects of a long break is quite overwhelming and could reflect in the quality of results during the start of a new season.

For one, after a league break, there are so many changes observed in teams – In and out of players, managers might have changed, tactics and game approach might as well have changed. Come to think of it, a team you might have built a strategy around may not be in the same league anymore. Either relegated or promoted.

And i think here is a huge factor to consider too.

Taking the English premier league as a case study, you’ll find out that the premiership is not exactly what it were  just a few months ago.  If you aren’t yet aware let me bring to your notice that Three teams got relegated (Newcastle, Norwich and Aston villa) and another three teams earned themselves a promotion into the premiership (Middlesbrough, Burnley and Hull city). Three newcomers into the league is a relatively large set and it’s worth considering the degree of uncertainty they could bring into a league of 20 teams.

In the English Championship, the problem gets deeper as our three relegated premiership teams drops down to the championship, Two teams got relegated from the championship ( Charlton and Bolton) and three entirely new teams coming in from league one (Burton Albion, Wigan Athletic, and Barnsley). What do we have here? 6 new teams which will undoubtedly introduce more statistical randomness.

If you’ve been following my train of thoughts, then you must have gotten an idea of what am trying to say.

No league in the world comes back from a break and remains same as it where before it went for one. There would always be a reshuffle – new teams come in from lower leagues and poor performing teams go down a division lower. This is a necessary and inevitable aspect of the game. But to punters, this little change might introduce some degree of unpredictability in the league.

Moreover, a fully fit professional player will not be at the same top-notch level after  a 3 month holiday. He is human and a footballer.

Think of it this way….

• After a long vacation break, as a student are you excited to go back to school? If you are, will you be as serious when you go for lectures as you were towards the end of the previous semester?

 

• As a worker, do you get back to work after say the Christmas break with the same working spirits you left off? Though a relatively short break compared to that of the league break of three months but it could help you have the mental picture of what am trying to say.

It’s normal human nature, and it even gets more complicated if you’d experience any changes on resumption. For the student, a change in lecturer, for the worker, a change in staff or position and so on.

Do you get the angle am pointing to with all this?

You see, many matches observed at the start of the season finishes with least expected results – results far from the normal statistical expectation.

Say you intend to try out your hands on some of the ideas in the E-book. Maybe the One out of Ten strategy or the HT Magic System, it’s always good to paper test (try the methods out on your own without money to see how it really works).

It’s possible a strategy or plan that worked perfectly well in the previous campaign in a particular league may not be as profitable in the current season.

If only we had magical mirrors to correctly predict how the league would play out – will there be more home wins? Fewer draws? more/less away wins? Than they were in the previous seasons?

Definitely there will be a change – that little deviation from the normal needs to be taken into account into a prediction model or better still into a well-tailored betting system for the new league.

It usually takes an approximate of 5 weeks to 9 weeks for teams to settle and begin following statistical averages that synchronize with previous data.

You may want to ask – if it’s this difficult and statistical variables are this noisy at the start of a season, how do bookmakers then generate odds for games to be played at the start of a season or involving a team newly promoted into the league?

The fact is that bookmakers are business people. Imagine a customer coming to your shop and you don’t have what he wants. In same light, imagine going to the bet shop in a next week when the season kicks off and you don’t see odds displayed for gaming.

If the bookmaker should be a bit honest with you, he’d tell you that proper odds calculation at this time of the season is quite a complex task primarily because it’s difficult to price newcomers accurately. Though bookmakers makes use of sophisticated softwares to compile betting odds, they still face the same problems as punters too. But being a profit-oriented company, they’d set their odds with an in-built profit margin in order to protect themselves.

Especially if you are punter who uses lots of odds and probability calculations to make betting decisions, it’s just prudent to stay away from betting at the start of season because no matter how accurate your analysis are, unfortunately results during this period may deviate from what you had expected.

You might get to understand this article better if you flip back your mind to the events of last season. Especially in the premiership, where Leicester did the unthinkable. Who would have thought it wise to build a betting portfolio around them? Not forgetting in a hurry, the agony of losing money week in week out at the hands of  a ‘supposedly’ favorite team Chelsea that had a really terrible campaign at the start of last season.

Pause.

Isn’t it more likely that one could have made better informed decisions if only they had exercised a little caution and restraint at the start of that league campaign?

Maybe i digressed a bit, but you shouldn’t miss the message.

There will always be football games to bet on, don’t be in a hurry. Take a peep from the stands on what the future holds before investing your hard-earned cash. It stands to reason that – An opponent who knows the future cannot lose. This future will don’t know and never might but that’s not the target. The target is making an educated guess that could see you win far more than you currently do. To achieve this, you must drop emotions and excitement at the doorstep and start thinking strategically.

So which will it be for you – Finding out how to safely escape a minefield when you are already inside or avoiding entering one in the first place?

This is just one out of many mistakes you make in betting. In my e-book “How To Make One Million From Online Football Betting”, i highlighted so many other mistakes you’ve been making too and how to place your bets in a totally different way to change the tides in your favor. If you have any serious intention of making some profits from football betting, reading the e-book is a must.